File Size: 1274 KB
Print Length: 288 pages
Publisher: Random House; 1st edition (January 18, 2001)
Publication Date: January 18, 2001
The gist of the story is that no amount of economic modelling can overcome a “black swan” event, although the term “black swan” had not been a known term during these occasions.
Fast forward from 98 to 2008 and the term “black swan” has become a key part of “financial lexicon” when considering what unforseen uncertainty might do to the cost of financial assets and debts.
With the good thing about hindsight, some of the geniuses at Long Term Capital Management might have considered financial modelling for a “black swan” event.
The storyline is also one for detailing the shortcoming and weakness of human character. For example:
• Hubris v humbleness;
• World of one v meekness
• Over confidence v modesty;
• Pride v humility;
• Condescension v respect;
• Disdain v respect;
• Contempt v admiration
and so it goes on.
A readers is somewhat reminded by the verse “as you shall sow, then so shall you reap”. This kind of an apt phrase relatively applies throughout the book, but the one stand out is when management decides to fully receive the administrative centre of the exterior investors, expecting to to increasing management’s share of the pie, learn that the geniuses at Long-Term Capital Management had failed to realise that by shafting these investors, they had (in the end) shafted by themselves., Although this novel was at times quite dense, it provided very fascinating insights into the world of Stock market. It was not just a regarding numbers, but rather competing unrestrained egos, high-stakes, and a rejection of the possible for defeat. If you are not familiar with finance, this book can pull a bit. Nevertheless , it does teach you a lot (despite its haughty tone and vocabulary). What is important here is how there are people behind the numbers-- and many times that is a fact disregarded by investors and Wall Street alike., The book has relevant lessons - even some 20 years later. Covering the LTCM crash after the fall of the Russian personal debt markets, the book really is a superb look at the risks and idiocy of pure formulaic finance and the threat of excessive leverage in light of both hubris and greed. The story plot of the book - with the rise and drop of LTCM is a decent read, and the book would likely rate 4 stars standing only on the bulk. This is the " 6th star" epilogue that brings up the grade. Lowenstein summarizes the lessons learned extremely well, and does so in a rather fair and unbiased way. The fact that this type of failure appears to recur with frightening regularity shows that we don't learn the lessons very well - and greed and hubris will generally guideline the afternoon - or at least The Street. A fantastic book - although you may only read the epilogue., General good book. Gives some inside info about the LTCM case that wasn't widely known but at some parts the writer over repeats the same things.
Likewise he's quite kind for the Nobel laureates and their models and also he doesnt talk thoroughly about them
Overall though good and interesting book, I decided after this book because although it has been almost fifteen years considering that the collapse of the hedge fund LTCM, the afterword was written in 2010, and i also wanted to see what parallels there were between LTCM and the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Roger Loewensten describes how the extreme perils of derivative risk that introduced down LTCM, were essentially the same risks that caused the financial turmoil ten years later. He astutely notes that as opposed to many observers, these occasions were not "the perfect storm, " but rather largely poorly understood market forces. Although there is ample evidence of the greed of the LTCM partners, the decription of the formation and growth of the fund suggests it was the unmitigated hubris of the Nobel Laureates and other high IQ partners that written for the failure of this fund. This book is well written, with a focus on the individuals rather than on the technical elements of hedge. As a result, there is some confusion about how and why LTCM grew so leveraged, and why, as Loewenstein notes, their creditors were so beholden to them, and at such chance themselves as LTCM was failing. There are other sources for your information, and this book deserves the accolades it has received., This is a remarkable tale of 1 of the most impressive companies and hedge fund in history, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) of Greenwich, Connecticut. A group of academics that used mathematical models of the past to predict future but failed because, “They had forgotten the individual factor. ”
This is a chilling harbinger as the crisis that would impact Wall Street ten years later. Roger Lowenstein provides a complex read, well organized, story of finance gone aerie due to hubris. In this narrative he reviews and defines many investment phrases for the novice. Products as hedge fund, derivatives, efficient market hypothesis, repo financing, IO’s & PO’s, swap and far about odds using dice as an illustrative example are put forth.
Most striking is the view the readers obtains from your perch that Lowenstein provides into the New York Fed, Stock market Banks and particularly the characters and relationships of Jon Corzine and Warren Buffet. This all happening and cloaked while the Clinton Lewinsky scandal was unraveling. The drama almost acquired down the world markets.
Arrogance and hubris strikes again, shades of Enron, I acquired this book on the whim, completely expecting almost all of the materials to be completely over and above my understanding. I thought it was going to be one of those books that would accumulate dust in my Kindle library. Thankfully, I was very pleasantly surprised. Lowenstein requires you on a journey ride that I could frankly not put down. The narrative of the final hours of attempting to save the off-set fund reads like a Jason Bourne screenplay: high suspense and action filled. And the best part is it isn't fiction. When you like financial devastation literature like The Huge Short or The Smartest Guys in the Room, you will enjoy this.
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